The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
Ahrrwx-The informational content of ditlercnt forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We we the procedure in Fair and Shikr (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ante forecasts: the American Statist&i Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASP.). Data Resources Incorporated (DRI). and Wharton Economic Forecasting Asscciates (WEFA). We compare these forecasts to each other and to ‘~quasi ex ante” forecasts generaied from a ~ecfor autoiepressive model. an autoregressive components mod& and a large-scale structural model (the Fair model).
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تاریخ انتشار 1997